Thursday, July 17, 2008

Education leeds to more money for you and more taxes for the government.
We both benefit. Both you and I - in the government should be putting whatever investment we need to make certain we have the most highly trained workforce in this country.
People in jail don't come back after getting a high school diploma.
We need to create a momentum of developing all the talent and ability in every American.
Education can be a form of trade on the economy that forms the backbone of the economy - rather than regular consumerism.
New Textbooks, jobs for writers, jobs for printers, transporting them, you create jobs.
New schools, new construction, new furniture, new computers, new jobs.
Education can replace part of consumerism in the economy.
We can shape how we consume knowledge instead of a myriad of other things that leave worse by-products.
What is the winning factor?
Obama will balance out any advantage among white voters with John McCain.
Neither will gain a huge leed there.
But, if Obama is balanced out there and a massive quantity of the population - black people - all vote for Obama and there is high turnout -
What happens?
He only needs to win by one vote.
If Obama is behind by 9% in the white vote and the black vote rolls in and 100% comes for him, he will win.
The black vote could actually be enough power that, the white voters balance each other out, and the black voters determine the election.
Consider what has been occuring in American Idol.
We have had many black winners.
This will be a similar situation.
All Obama has to do is chew away at McCain's leadership areas amongst white voters, and maintain his standing with black voters - and he wins by a large margin.
The black voter block - in this case it is a block - may block McCain from becoming President.
How does Obama win by a Land Slide?
Economic Strength as an Obligation for National Security and an Obligation of the Commander in Chief.
After answering on Military points, returning at the end of each major statement to a pocket book issue.
As commander in Chief, I will be focused on energy at home - because it will create jobs, money for Americans, and security through independance from other countries.
America is more secure when more Americans have good jobs. That pays taxes, which funds our government and our military.
So, we do better in every way when our economy at home and how you are doing in your life, financially is taken into account.
How you are doing at home, your physical health, health care, financial situation, job stability, is the foundation for our national security.
As commander in chief I won't take my eyes off the foundation of our national security - you, your ability to work, your ability to earn a living, pay taxes, and keep our country economically strong.
So, I will do everything I can to keep this economy strong as the foundation to my national security plan.
Obama will win. My prediction is made today.
McCain will climb back several times and not go down without a serious fight, but he will go down.
Obama is going straight for the juggular.
McCain is seen by the public as having one major strength over Obama.
Obama is succesfully targeting the only place where McCain polls as being ahead.
If Obama narrows the gap on that even a little bit and keeps McCain fighting on that, we all know McCain is clueless on the economy already and has very little to say.
If McCain were to gain momentum on the economy, Obama could just match his message, improve on it, and deliver it better.
So, Obama is succeeding at going after McCain on the Commander and Chief level of being President.
7/17/2008 be it predicted here.
Obama will be the next President of the United States and by that time, he will have changed everything.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Iran: Cohort Perspective

Fact: 70% of the population in Iran is under the age of 30.

Reality: American leaders who are interacting with Iran are at least a generation or two older.

The American leaders come from a time when they witnessed as adults and had to work on the hostage crisis and other problems with Iran.

The Iranians are in a young and fresh cohort.

There is an asymetry here - in that Americans may pride themselves on remembering and learning from past problems - when

the Iranian population wasn't old enough or even born - to be able to remember most of them.

This young cohort in Iran over time could put more and more pressure on the government there and shift the policies.

I think Iran is an easier out than we may have anticipated.

Conclusion: The young cohort in Iran will have a capacity for new directions, flexibility, and changes of leadership - not possible if it was an older more rooted population.

Consider: The population is not filled with old - hard -liner Yassar Arafats - who have 60 years of war under their belt.

The potential for change exists.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

When does a President get good at his job?

I believe it depends on the talent of the person to begin with.

But - consider that Bush had 8 yrs.

This is an MSNBC article below. Is it possible that it takes time for someone to get good at being the president?

With recent successes in North Korea (noting that a diplomat who is very effective may be in place), and other things.

Is it possible we would pull out of Iraq right at the time we get good at it?

Or the President learns how to responsibly handle the job after 8 yrs of on the job training?

Just a thought.

#1 in my mind is that what crosses the president's desk is only the major difficult decisions and the crises that require fast action by the one in charge. The one where weeks of thinking may not be allowed.

So my number one test would be the answer to the question.

Who would best handle the hard decisions and crises? If one says experience - then Mccain gets the answer. If one says, one who proves each day his judgement is ahead of the curve - Obama can have that because he was against Iraq from the start. If one believes the world

has changed so dramatically that experience is a detriment then you have another issue altogether.

McCain doesn't know how to Google. Thats how old and out of touch with the modern era he is. That is how Obama wins.

That is discourse in the vernacular. McCain has experience and a sure mastery of the way things used to be. He's not even up on the times enough to know how to Google. Do you google?

Bush seeks sanctions against Zimbabwe

President Mugabe expected to be sworn in Sunday after 'sham' election

Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi / AP
A man and his family examine results of the presidential runoff election Saturday outside a polling station in Harare, Zimbabwe.
Video
Mugabe votes in presidential election
June 27: Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe casts his ballot in the internationally discredited and violence tainted presidential run-off. Msnbc.com's Dara Brown reports.

msnbc.com

Slide show
Image: A mourner grieves
Zimbabwe runoff crisis
After months of politically fueled violence, Zimbabwe braces for its one-man presidential run-off election.

more photos

Slide show
Zimbabwe, a nation in decline
Take a look at the country's tumultuous path since independence.
Web extra video
Mugabe’s Zimbabwe
As the one-time "breadbasket of Africa" plunges deeper into crisis, an analysis of President Robert Mugabe’s devastating legacy.

NBC News Web Extra

Video
Zimbabwean exiles protest
June 27: In London protesters carried a coffin from the Zimbabwean Embassy to the South African High Commission today to illustrate the death of democracy in Zimbabwe. ITN's Paul Davies reports.

Nightly News

MSNBC News Services
updated 15 minutes ago

HARARE, Zimbabwe - The United States is developing penalties against the government of Zimbabwe, President Bush said Saturday, in response to the country's widely-condemned runoff election.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Is it a recession or not?

Bush says "No, it's slow growth."

I say, if you look at what is happening with the figures, the overall gdp that measures what the economy is doing, you get a .06% growth rate. Yes, very slow growth.

But, if you look behind the numbers, you will see that those numbers are buoyed by one factor. The dollar is so low that exports are increasing. People overseas can buy American goods on the cheap and they are beginning too.

Thats a silver lining to the economy.

But, are you in the export business?

At the moment, me neither. So, what are the other numbers?

If the GDP is boosted by exports and what we see as a slow growth economy includes the figures from increased exports, then the economy at home, must be way down.

So, we are in a recession at home, but there is a little more money coming from outside. Basically, we are not pouring our money like a flood to the outside world as fast as we were before. Though we are still in a trade deficit with the outside world that is staggering.

Recession = yes. Unless you are an exporter taking advantage of a demolished dollar.

In a year the dollars the exporters earn at home could cycle back into the economy and be spent on other things and effect other businesses, but, well that would be a year in recession for most.

Bejamin Feinblum

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