Thursday, July 17, 2008
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Iran: Cohort Perspective
Fact: 70% of the population in Iran is under the age of 30.
Reality: American leaders who are interacting with Iran are at least a generation or two older.
The American leaders come from a time when they witnessed as adults and had to work on the hostage crisis and other problems with Iran.
The Iranians are in a young and fresh cohort.
There is an asymetry here - in that Americans may pride themselves on remembering and learning from past problems - when
the Iranian population wasn't old enough or even born - to be able to remember most of them.
This young cohort in Iran over time could put more and more pressure on the government there and shift the policies.
I think Iran is an easier out than we may have anticipated.
Conclusion: The young cohort in Iran will have a capacity for new directions, flexibility, and changes of leadership - not possible if it was an older more rooted population.
Consider: The population is not filled with old - hard -liner Yassar Arafats - who have 60 years of war under their belt.
The potential for change exists.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
When does a President get good at his job?
I believe it depends on the talent of the person to begin with.
But - consider that Bush had 8 yrs.
This is an MSNBC article below. Is it possible that it takes time for someone to get good at being the president?
With recent successes in North Korea (noting that a diplomat who is very effective may be in place), and other things.
Is it possible we would pull out of Iraq right at the time we get good at it?
Or the President learns how to responsibly handle the job after 8 yrs of on the job training?
Just a thought.
#1 in my mind is that what crosses the president's desk is only the major difficult decisions and the crises that require fast action by the one in charge. The one where weeks of thinking may not be allowed.
So my number one test would be the answer to the question.
Who would best handle the hard decisions and crises? If one says experience - then Mccain gets the answer. If one says, one who proves each day his judgement is ahead of the curve - Obama can have that because he was against Iraq from the start. If one believes the world
has changed so dramatically that experience is a detriment then you have another issue altogether.
McCain doesn't know how to Google. Thats how old and out of touch with the modern era he is. That is how Obama wins.
That is discourse in the vernacular. McCain has experience and a sure mastery of the way things used to be. He's not even up on the times enough to know how to Google. Do you google?
Bush seeks sanctions against Zimbabwe
President Mugabe expected to be sworn in Sunday after 'sham' election
Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi / AP A man and his family examine results of the presidential runoff election Saturday outside a polling station in Harare, Zimbabwe. |
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Mugabe votes in presidential election June 27: Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe casts his ballot in the internationally discredited and violence tainted presidential run-off. Msnbc.com's Dara Brown reports. msnbc.com |
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Zimbabwe runoff crisis After months of politically fueled violence, Zimbabwe braces for its one-man presidential run-off election. more photos |
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Mugabe’s Zimbabwe As the one-time "breadbasket of Africa" plunges deeper into crisis, an analysis of President Robert Mugabe’s devastating legacy. NBC News Web Extra |
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Zimbabwean exiles protest June 27: In London protesters carried a coffin from the Zimbabwean Embassy to the South African High Commission today to illustrate the death of democracy in Zimbabwe. ITN's Paul Davies reports. Nightly News |
HARARE, Zimbabwe - The United States is developing penalties against the government of Zimbabwe, President Bush said Saturday, in response to the country's widely-condemned runoff election.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Is it a recession or not?
Bush says "No, it's slow growth."
I say, if you look at what is happening with the figures, the overall gdp that measures what the economy is doing, you get a .06% growth rate. Yes, very slow growth.
But, if you look behind the numbers, you will see that those numbers are buoyed by one factor. The dollar is so low that exports are increasing. People overseas can buy American goods on the cheap and they are beginning too.
Thats a silver lining to the economy.
But, are you in the export business?
At the moment, me neither. So, what are the other numbers?
If the GDP is boosted by exports and what we see as a slow growth economy includes the figures from increased exports, then the economy at home, must be way down.
So, we are in a recession at home, but there is a little more money coming from outside. Basically, we are not pouring our money like a flood to the outside world as fast as we were before. Though we are still in a trade deficit with the outside world that is staggering.
Recession = yes. Unless you are an exporter taking advantage of a demolished dollar.
In a year the dollars the exporters earn at home could cycle back into the economy and be spent on other things and effect other businesses, but, well that would be a year in recession for most.
Bejamin Feinblum