Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Obama's Economic Turnaround
Their goal is to block a recovery until they have more power and can take credit.
Their two methods are to slow job creation and to increase uncertainty.
In that context. Obama achieved economic results.
I will be posting all the highlights here to build the full case based on data.
Videos of those screaming loudest against him now, though they were for what he was doing at the time, will also be posted.
I will try to show the general picture and then the specific elements - like Stimulus... health care spending drops effect on GDP, impact of 50 year lows of tax revenue on the debt, and other key elements of the puzzle.
This will draw heavily from previous posts and will be focused on factual economic data I collected along the way.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Fix the High Divorce Rate
Then train the capacity to proper conflict resolution.
I will begin with a statement that may reduce your fears.
Yes, the divorce rate is about 56%.
No - that doesn't mean everyone gets divorced.
In reality, a majority of all divorces are happening with people who have only a high school education. Often, those people get married younger in their early 20's.
Some relationship experts argue that a person isn't themself until they are 30.
So, if you have a higher degree of education... your odds of divorce are much lower.
Source of the problem:
Not conflict, but how conflict is handled.
I will go into this later, but you will see that this blight on society can be solved.
Divorce is actually one of the most costly of all things in society.
I will try to post numbers soon when I have time.
But, the rewards for solving that problem are massive in dollar amounts... not just personal feelings and lives.
Unmask. Show us your face.
And therefore - I challenge the global community to find ways to remove the masks of our enemies.
Because the mask is at the root of what allows them to take the actions that they do.
As a regular person. If you see someone in a mask in the news. Be it the Iranian's brutalizing their citizens, Hammas, the KKK, the Taliban. We need to inoculate ourselves against any moral relativity between a masked group - and ourselves. And we must keep to the higher ground.
This presentation captures a broad spectrum of the roots of evil.
All other times I have seen Zimbardo - he has been in a suit. Highly paced. And looking truly professional. Watch him when he steps out of that uniform. It changes him too.
http://www.ted.com/talks/philip_zimbardo_on_the_psychology_of_evil.html
In one section he shows the likelihood of atrocities and abuses of power when someone wears a mask and thus their identity is covered. It jumps to 90%.
Thus, Israel's primary diplomatic objective should be... not to get Hammas or the PlO to be friendly to them. Or, to accept Israel as a state.
The primary objective of Israel to the Palestinians should be - "Take off your masks permanently and we will talk." Because the mask is at the root of what allows atrocity.
The same should be true between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Taliban.
No negotiations should persist while people wear masks that cut the root of their moral humanity.
Thus: I declare a solution to the World's Problems is through all means possible to either persuade, or force the removal of these masks as the primary goal of actions.
After watching Zimbardo.
Now look at the various groups wearing masks and what they are capable of.
Hammas:
http://www.ynetnews.com/PicServer2/20122005/906619/AM17_wa.jpg
Taliban
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/2/16/1266356004440/Taliban-guerrilla-fighter-001.jpg
The Iranians when brutalizing their citizens. Look at images of the atrocities, but scroll down to the third item. Below the video. Again. The mask.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2011/09/ahmadinejad-praises-iranian-regimes-pioneering-role-in-promoting-cilivization/
The KKK and their masks.
http://schoolworkhelper.net/2011/07/ku-klux-klan-history-racism/
Al Quaeda
http://www.prisonplanet.com/images/october2010/211010top3.jpg
Masked again.
Consider... what image pops into your mind when you think of a bank robber?
That mask allows cover so they might not get caught after being on video.
But, the mask is also what unlocks the side of their human nature... allows them to cross the line - to carry it out.
Consider that in Syria - during their current atrocities - they add another mechanism. Hidden snipers. Who can disassociate themselves with their actions because they are hidden far away behind a wall.
Because the social-psychological mechanism that allows the structuring of a system where normal people will create atrocity. We should be on a mission to find ways to get these groups to remove the masks.
http://schoolworkhelper.net/2011/07/ku-klux-klan-history-racism/
We should not allow them to hide behind a veil that gives them permission to ignore their humanity.
How is this most useful now?
Well - we want to solve these major issues.
First, military leaders, political leaders, and the general populace should become aware.
Any time you see a masked player in a military scene - that is a marker that atrocity will soon happen and intervention may be warranted. The mask is a precursor to one's ability to carry out the atrocity. When they are wearing it... know that they have already received their orders!
Later - I will put the images and studies directly into this article. For now. Use the links!
Monday, January 9, 2012
Government Spending Solutions
Currently, if it is not spent in that budget cycle you may not get the money back next year.
So, parts of the government will spend all the money to make sure they prove they need it next year.
Example: A soldier told me that he happened to be in a smaller training squad. And that the size varies every year. The squadron leaders order the ammo that uses up the entire budget. But, they also have to use up all the ammo.
After a training mission, when there was ammo left because they had fewer guys in the squad, what did they do? They had to take about 11,000 rounds of live ammo and fire it off. Then they could get the money next year.
Consider the problem if the budget was cut because in 2011 they didn't use it all. Then in 2012 they have a squadron to train with twice the number of people and they loose their money in 2012 because they had too much in 2011. Well, the way it moves creates a financial mismatch. The money may be too much, or two little at the time, and the way it is adjusted will cause people to waste resources, or not have enough next year.
Top priority for fixing government money... Allow groups to bank money that they don't need this year and then use it whenever they want.
What else does this solve? Consider you have a recession. Everybody flips out because it looks like whomever the President is, is spending like crazy because taxes paid to the government drops heavily.
Well, if different groups had money in their bank accounts that they did not spend... during a recession... maybe under the circumstance that their regular budget needs to be trimmed... they don't have to stop doing what they are doing. They have money in the bank.
It creates a more resilient government, cuts down on wasteful spending, and maybe if they build up a little in the bank they can think of important things to invest in that they couldn't do with just a little bit of money. And we might take some leaps forwards that way.
Bank money that is not needed. Keep budgeting levels the same next year.
2) Contractors.
We get great contractors, highly educated, who run in and do a good job. This is a large part of how government work gets done. The benefit is that it keeps the government a bit more flexible. It is easier to move contractors in and out than government employees.
But, what happens when a company that is contracted by the federal government reports that they have four people doing a job, when they only have one. And they bill for four people.
Well, lets just say I have heard of this occurring more than once and it needs to be looked into deeply.
Because out of the limited number of people who work for the government who have been close enough to tell me things like this... well, they all seem to say it!
Friday, January 6, 2012
Liberal, Conservative, Libertarianism
This post will illuminate how I approach my decision making. The perspectives that I choose.
In sociology, we study the various perspectives to look at a problem.
Then we use all the perspectives together to find the best solution.
We look solidly from one perspective. Then we look solidly from another.
We keep learning by seeing a structure of society from all sides and then making the most in depth thought possible before a decision.
Often, I end up somewhat centrist. And a position of mine may end up quite moderate. But, that is not nuanced enough to understand my approach. I may be centrist in that I take a highly liberal idea and find a conservative libertarian way to carry it out. I end up with a solution that looks somewhat centrist, but I may fully adopt a liberal, or even a progressive position on one side of an issue and run with that - tempered with a conservative side of the issue.
Here is my philosophy:
ps. Remind me to find an example from cspan.org of a committee hearing in Congress from decades ago where all the perspectives were working together in cooperation to find the best solutions.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Problem solving station
They all comprise my new workstation. And don't forget the droid.
The most impressive thing is that this is in my dining room.
A 360 degree panoramic desktop program rounds out the two linked lcds.
Why?
How does one manage when the phone rings and a completely new set of data is required? Or, process for a different company?
Or calendar input on one hand. Calculator on the other.
Well... All those things are in a workstation that could fly a space ship... Or something.
Well, that's how I work. On multiple projects at once.
They never leave the screen!
Tada! I have solved my world problems!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
The Global Powers as the New Global S...
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Is there room for so much "born pessi...
My view on banks is clear There are two parts.
1) Physical Infrastructure
2) People running the infrastructure
I believe that the physical infrastructure is more advanced and effective than ever in history. ATM's, Web-Banking, all incredible advancements. We don't really hear about a lot of bank robberies either. We have camera's, fortifications, alarms. I don't think the physical infrastructure of banks is anything but phenomenal.
Krugman would be right - if - the people running that infrastructure were the same. However, when using formulas on a fluid situation if the ones directing the situation have all changed and their approaches and aims have changed, the results are likely to be different than we expect.
Consider, if you put x dollars in to y person at institution to control - and that person is the one who messed everything up in the first place - chances are things mess up in a different way.
If you put x dollars in to z person... what is the outcome of the equation?
I don't believe there is room for "Born Pessimism." We are taking our shot as a nation and we better hope we are getting it right.
Where does he agree with Obama? Lets hear that. I like to think of the metaphor myself where early airplanes that lost control, would regain control if the pilot took his hands off the controls. If following that, it makes sense to do nothing and let things fall the way they do. However, what if the airplane is in a steep nose dive and all the pilot has to do is pull on the yoke and the plane will level itself out?
We've got new pilots. Banks are about money. We are loaning them money. Even better, they are paying us a lot of interest. An unspoken part of this plan is that the treasury is selling bonds at a fraction of 1 percent interest. Then the treasury is receiving 10% interest from the banks. So, the US government has negotiated a deal where we earn a 9% spread. We either have this - or China - the only other source of cash on the planet - comes in and buys our failed banks. There are assets there - physical assets. In our current situation - our banks our owned - but they are owned by US. The United States is funded by businesses in America and by US. The officials are elected by US.
Canada bought Commerce Bank and it is now TD bank. How many banks do we want to fail and have be bought up by better capitalized foreign entities?
In this case - what we have, stays American. Our financial system stays American. I am optimistic that we have pulled out of a nose dive and we need now to read our instruments and see if our "horizon" instrument is leveling out correctly.
In this case, we are flying a little bit blind in the clouds. The only question is, are we reading the right instruments to see if we are on course?
Friday, February 6, 2009
The Illusion of Productivity in the I...
The Illusion of Productivity in the Information Age
Friday, December 5, 2008
These are education ideas based on th...
1) Problem solving via education:
a. A medical doctor came into my class in private school in fourth grade with a demonstration. She attached a cigarette to a plastic tube that went into a plastic model of a human being. Inside the model, 2 mason jars were filled with Angel Hair/cotton, which the doctor stated would act like our lungs. She had a hand pump to squeeze that created suction on the tube holding the cigarette to create breathing action. The white cotton after a few puffs on the cigarette began to turn black right in front of our eyes. I never smoked, nor have I ever tried a cigarette since seeing the results in fourth grade of ingesting the smoke from one cigarette.
-public school had nothing like this. This demonstration can be done with nurses, emt's, or any health official.
Bottom Line: Let's target problems in a preventative fashion through education.
b. Obesity is at the root of many of the health ills that are most costly in this country. What can we do through education that targets that problem 100%?
-First, we need to get our information strait. Bring Dr. Michael Anchors -MD, PHD to the White House and to Congress to speak about weight loss. If you read his book - Life between Meals - you will get ideas for policy change. (His book could not be mass published. Publishers said, "It's not trendy enough. It's all fact. We want something that will excite people and fly off the shelf." So they would not publish the writing of a man who has been a weight loss doctor for 30 years, or work with him to reform the book to be more marketable.)
Here is a sample from his blog. Contact him through his site, get his book. It reads like a text book of what every American should be doing. Distill down the information and get it into schools at the early level. Start at the root with health education. Make it important that all elementary school children are saying things like, "I'm not gonna do that, that can't be good for my health." Get them young. This gets heart disease, diabetes, and all kinds of other costly problems down.
http://phenpro.com/comments.php?id=798_0_1_0_C
C. Divorce. My background in Sociology taught me a startling piece of information. The rate of divorce - one of the most costly things in society - is not driven by the quantity or intensity of conflict. It is driven by how the conflict is resolved. In college, I was introduced to conflict resolution. It stated, you listen - paraphrase - state your opinion - and then listen again - paraphrase back - and then state your opinion - until you can find an alternative solution that is win win for both. Why did I have to get that one lesson from a PHD professor of Stress Management in college? (A course I had to argue with my parents to take because it was outside of requirements.)
The funny thing is, the most important thing I learned about relationships in school, that changed my entire life - I learned in my last year of 7 years of college (when I paid myself the last 2) - from a course I could barely find, barely get into, and wish I had first semester freshman year.
Every day, this course provided the most relevant information in the history of my education. Can you take this type of information (Dr. Gerald Greenberg at University of Maryland has phenomenal books and he can guide you) and incorporate it into schools as prevention.
Also, divorce is caused by competition in relationship. When there are disagreements and it becomes debate - one wins - one loses. In a marriage this means you make the person you love most in your life a loser, or you try to. Successful relationships share in common that they dialog about disagreements and find win - win scenarios.
What about having a life skills course at the start of each 4 year block of school? And I mean an intensive course that prepares people for life. Rigorously taught by the best professional educators.
2) Motivation/inspiration via education.
Use the web to create an organization of professionals who are willing to come into schools a couple times a year to speak to specific classes. For example, bring a carpenter into geometry class towards the beginning to discuss how he draws shapes on his designs in order to plan how he will build houses/rooms... etc.
Bottom Line: Education partnerships with the community of professionals surrounding it. Bring experts into each class once a year to talk about how they use each skill. Bring a scientist or a business man in to talk about how he uses writing skills. Bring experts into every class to compel the students to engage far more strongly in the material.
Concept: Engaged students will pull more information from their teachers and challenge their teachers to be better. Teachers will also feel appreciated and will work harder when students are engaged and it is not an uphill battle to teach.
3) An education forum for parents
Provide a forum for parents to get the latest information in very distilled fashion on how to help their kids be successful in school.
One example, highlight that students grades are directly correlated towards the number of hours of sleep they have. When in public school, there was one class in high school where a teacher went - picked up a metal trash can - and threw it down on the ground while standing on a lab desk to wake everyone up. 38 people had fallen asleep during class near the beginning. They were all worn out when they got in there. I was engaged in the material and found him to be a great teacher.
Start with sleep:
Talk about diet:
Talk more about playing outside and video games.
4) Counter act self-defeating trends.
One example, as an entertainer I perform in schools. Now, children are layered up with sun screen before they go outside.
The media has pumped up a lot of fear about exposure to sunlight and so parents and teachers have a different feeling about sending their kids outside. There was a period of time that I realized if I watched the news too much, I would develop fears of everything. Look at what the news tells people, go outside and a mosquito can poison you with west nile virus, or the sun can give you cancer, or.... etc.
There is already some change in this, but we need to take this all the way.
Somehow parents need to learn that being in sunlight activates vitamin D, which helps children develop. Humans work like trees with photosynthesis. We create vitamin D in the sun rather than glucose.
Target and counter these issues that create limits on children being outside.
Remember, being inside on a video game is fun - but if being outside might eventually kill you - you are safer if your kids are inside.
Trend two. Talk to strangers education. Kidnapping is actually one of the rarest form of crime, yet, to protect children from it (even though most kidnappers and child abusers know the family personally) we have told children not to talk to strangers. Imagine Obama running for president not talking to strangers. Imagine a sales person, a business person, anyone trying to be successful not talking to strangers.
I feel in our culture the results of this teaching. When I go around the world and learn how open people are to communication it kills me. We create a pattern in childhood that separates people and makes them keep their distance.
Instead: We need to educate children how to understand who is safe to talk to and who is not. Pick up signs that something is weird. How to judge when someone has your best intentions at heart - or when they are trying to get something. Educate children to read and understand people. Nonverbal communication is a science now.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Primary Green Energy Initiative.
Economic recovery plan
Please, print this plan and look for salient points. Please, call me to elaborate. I wrote in outline form so that you can see a three pronged plan with multiple specific steps. Each focuses on Leadership, cash flow, market stability, competitiveness, and planting the seeds for our future strength. Jobs are folded into a side effect of each treatment that is stated below.
I have applied for a job in the Obama administration. Please, read this and find the right place for me to be. I am currently an entrepreneur and the President of my own company with an extreme passion for politics and helping America see a brighter future.
I sit all day, collecting and synthesizing ideas. What you see below are some of those results.
A. Attitude Adjustment:
The media is currently pummeling our economy into the ground. People who have jobs, that are secure, with plenty of savings in the bank - are petrified to spend a penny right now. Watch the media and say, "Is it possible that this may have hammered consumer confidence into the ground?"
Lead the media. Ask them to focus all of their news on what people can do to better manage their money and become more succesful. Ask them that whenever they make a report - 540,000 jobless claims - we ask that if you are a business owner you follow through on your contracts and continue to use services of other businesses because it is the engine of the economy. Don't stop building your business in this economy.
Ask the media, when they express negative news to phrase things as - this is things going in the wrong direction - here is one action you can take so that things go in the right direction.
Otherwise we are driving people into fear and creating a recession by people who could spend - being so afraid that they pull all of their money close.
Start a political election style whisper campaign to spark the competitive spirit of Americans. Give everyone the sense that while their competition has stopped spending on their business, they have the opportunity to advance every product they have and get way ahead. Leak these stories and get people thinking they are the only ones who are focused on spending and improving on their business.
Remember how it was leaked that you were muslim and all sorts of other things meant to scare people? Send out all these leaks so that people feel as though they got the idea to use the recession to out-do their competition who is not spending on business improvement.
Leak e-mails all over the place that give the sense that the economy will begin to improve soon.
Consider that the economy has halted due to fear and lack of leadership. People fear innovation and investment because they don't know if our country is going to be here next year.
Announce your 1 year plan, your 2 year plan, your five year plan, your ten year plan - just the basic structure, so that people get in their mind that our country will be here in those time increments. Set the example of long term planning for success. Open people's minds to the idea that they should plan because our country will still be here.
B. Cash flow problem
a. Consider the question - how are we funding our massive trade deficit?
- Americans do not have savings - we maxed out our credit cards - how are we funding this?
My answer: Through sending money that would support the pricing that our markets established. In housing for example, we are not directly spending the money from the equity in our homes. We are spending the money that we might use, if we were buying a home, or powering the economy in America that would generate the revenue that would allow someone else to buy a home at the market established price.
If we send all of our money overseas, we cannot purchase things at the rate that our markets have currently established.
Thus, by sending money overseas, when we do not have savings, or credit - we are going for the jugular - and indirectly paying with the equity in our homes - by being unable to support current market pricing levels.
C. Jobs
New Jobs:
1) Help fill current job demand.
a. Wind Power - we require more training. The jobs are available, money is available - wind power's future is slowed by a lack of people with the training. Create more programs to educate people to fill the jobs that are already there.
b. Nursing - we have more nursing jobs than we can fill. We are insourcing trained nurses from other countries. How can we fill those jobs with American workers? The medical culture undervalues nursing and doctors treat nurses poorly. How do we change the culture and draw more people into an avenue where jobs are available already?
2) Partner with existing organizations working for American competitiveness. This is an umbrella organization that covers most sectors of the economy that has a focused overall vision. Figure out how the government can take their mission and amp it up on steroids through government assistance - and making regulations and trade deals that are friendly to the mission of this organization.
http://www.tradereform.org/content/view/1168/42/
Work with the people of this organization to activate an economic army to go to work on whatever you set in motion. The people are already there. The leaders are already there. Tap those leaders, tap those visions, tap those workers in those industry's.
3) Solve the countrie's cash flow problem. When we ship all our money to somewhere else, we don't have it here and we wonder why we feel financially busted.
a) Focus on jobs that will create massive demand for US products via export.
b) Create an export web-site that teaches American businesses how to export and connects them with other businesses that will help them along the way.
c) Keep the value of the dollar low so that our exports are in greater demand.
4) Auto sector transformation. As part of a bailout - mandate that to get the money an SUV production line must be shut down and GM must act as a manufacturing company, not a design company on that one line. Work out a detail between GM and Aptera.com so that GM produces that car for the mass market. It gets 300 miles per gallon. There is a scientist in Arizona who has a large greenhouse where he grows algae. He can convert that algae to 50% oil in a refinery in his own lab. Ask Aptera to partner with this man to make a 300 mile per gallon vehicle that runs off algae in the next two years and make the funding available for GM to retool to produce this. Then we have a car that out-competes every other car globally. We dramatically reduce C02. We save GM. We switch from foreign oil to algae grown in Arizona. We get rid of corn ethanol that is far less efficient than the algae in terms of conversion to oil. And by dropping the production of corn ethanol - corn prices drop - and farmers begin producing other food crops. Then the price of basic food crops becomes more affordable and people can eat the staples - and afford the staples - more easily.
5) Sit all the bank CEO's in a room. Send one person from the government with each CEO as oversight. State that, "we own part of your bank - we insure your bank - you're business is stable because of us - if you do not begin loaning to qualified businesses and lendees we will nationalize your bank further, or begin treasury direct lending for car and business loans - directly competing with your business - with the full recources of the united states government. Aka - strong arm them. We require persuassion - influence - and if necessary compliance on this. Call bank CEO's each day - personally - and ask them, what are you doing today to increase lending to businesses?
6) The car industry will begin to recover when car loans are available. Make the bailout much smaller than they requested. Send money to keep them in business for one month more. Then, before you send out any more money - you want all 3 major CEO's in your office with a full accounting of how they spent every penny to be more competitive, before they get more. Focus on restoring the auto market by making loans available - and zeroing in on competitiveness, to attack the problem from both sides. Give in baby steps with maximum accountability. Say that only 2 car companies will get the next payment. So, your current actions determine who is in, and who is out. Make it down to the moment - that they must prove they are worthy to stay in business and get government support.
7) bring me in to your office to consult with you further.
8) Ask American's and American businesses a foot in the door action to get them spending again in the right way - responsibly.
Ask businesses to find the smallest investment that they can make dollar wise, that will yield the biggest advancement in the competitiveness of their business. Ask American's to purchase that one necessity that costs the least that they have been holding off on out of fear of the economy.
9) Fear as a wrecking-ball of the economy.
10) Al Quaida and Iran is fighting a war of attrition against us, while all of our energy has been focused on their nuclear weapons, which would be a war of anhillation. Their attacks are geared towards causing us to continue to drain our resources in every way possible. Our attacks are focused on anhilation of their organizations. We need to fill every one of the safest positions in our military with an ally nations forces so that we focus on the spearhead in the battle zone. Thus, we reduce our costs greatly, our allies are safe, and we achieve greater results at the head of the fight. The way the insurgents and Iran are fighting, is like an enemy sitting outside of our castle - laying siege - and draining our resources.
FOCUS THE BATTLE THE RIGHT WAY! THEY ARE TRYING TO DRAIN OUR DOLLARS NOT OUR BLOOD.
11) End the very strange stock/treasury cycle that we have gotten into. People are selling their stock in companies, buying treasuries, and the treasury is buying companies. The issue is that the people are left with .3% interest instead of the earnings of the stock market.
12) Use government money by contract. If a bank or someone wants money - they must write a proposal for contact, with the specific steps they will take with the money. They must get loans for that specific proposal to solve an exact problem, before they can get money.
13) Banks are not lending because they are not sure where their balance sheets are. They know they have money, they just don't know how much, so they fear lending. Create an external balance sheet. A set fund that they know is balanced and available - for lending to businesses and consumers of automobiles. Instead of isolating the negative assets, isolate some positive assets. $700 billion in business and consumer loans in a forward motion into the economy at the spearhead of companies and certain products that would create jobs, would be an absolute boom in the hands of the right people. Create an external balance sheet for banks to use specifically for loans and nothing else. Call it Loan Core - Lender balance sheet clarity center.
At the loan core, there are representatives to each bank. The bank puts a listing of loans that will create the most jobs, in priority order. Loan core files contracts for those exact - specific loans - instead of gross distribution of money - to irresponsible bankers. The money must go into a direct spear head for your goals.
9) Turn all efforts into as you put it, "Scalpel" efforts, not "hatchet" efforts.
10) Education - start from the bottom up and the top down.
a. Find areas where schools are bad and children are on a freight train from school to prison. b. boost reading instruction in those areas in the grades k-3 until all those kids are reading on grade level and then have a chance to learn what is in all of their other classes. c. Start at the young and focus on the one goal of tweaking the system one step at a time until children are getting their high school diplomas.
Concept: The number one factor that determines if an inmate will go back to jail - is if he gets a diploma in jail. If they do not, most go back. Jail = $70,000 per year, education = far less expensive. Spend on the front end so we don't have to pay for what we failed to accomplish up front.
b. Talented students. In minority schools, due to current rules, we lower the student teacher ratio for children with disabilities and special needs. We must shift this, so that we focus more intense resources on the gifted and talented students in our minority schools.
11) Saving money by leaving Iraq.
a. The generals in Iraq made plans when the Democrats began pushing for a time table for withdrawl. The generals made plans to prevent a power vacuum in the case of a precipitous withdrawl.
b. Get those plans - do everything you can to bolster the ideas in those plans. Give them 3 times the amount of time to execute the plans, focus all US Military and contractor strategy on elements that boost those plans and push the baby bird (Iraq) out of the nest, so it can fly on its own.
12) Call me for more ideas. I am looking for a job, applied, and want to work in the Obama administration. My Grandmother was my mentor and was small business woman of the year and a presidential advisor for four presidents. I want to contribute in the way she did and in the way she taught me how. I am currently the President of my own company that is thriving in this economy.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Corey Feinblum
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Economic Recovery: The Inverted economy
Premise: The money is still there.
People have placed their money in:
Treasury Bonds
CD's at banks
Anywhere they can find safety
Thus, the money withdrawn from the stock market that caused it to crash is still around.
Premise: The economy is upside down and lopsided
Deflation in the home market
Deflation in electronics
Deflation in gas prices
Deflation in the cost of credit
Wealth concentration at the top
Greatest need for money to buy basic consumer goods is at the bottom
Upside down mortgages: People hold mortgages worth more money than the value of their homes.
Premise: Any economic stimulus to the middle class will be spent immediately
People who rely paycheck to paycheck will spend immediately
This leads to an upward spiral
5% sales tax, income tax off that money spent at businesses, payroll tax off employee wages, sales tax off employee purchases, business purchases, then income tax at another business - money runs around in circles
Premise: Maslow's hierarchy of needs is not being met - thus consumer confidence is at all time low
People feel insecure about their homes
People feel uncertain about their jobs
People feel uncertain about what will happen with the price of things
People have fear that terrorists created, the news and Bush perpetuated
Fear prevents entrepreneurial investment and stock investment
This all prevents spending and investing that normally drive the economy, but the money is on the sidelines
Leadership over a steady period of time will begin to erode the problems.
1) People lose insecurity about their homes, the economy has a foot hold and progress can begin.
This means half way 2009 the economic graphs can be at a turning point, or 3/4 of the way through the year.
Is the US like an airplane that when in a flip will right itself? But, if a pilot grabs the yoke it will get messed up and take longer to recover? Is Barrack Obama the way the airplane has chosen to right itself.
Recovery by 6 months into 2010 if all goes well.
Issue concerning the value of a dollar.
Overseas: Our dollar buys less. It is weak right now.
At Home: As home prices drop, the dollar buys more of the largest asset one can own.
Weak dollar advances our exports.
If we re wrack our economy for massive exports through trade deals and alternative energy sales, then we have more money inflows into the economy.
If home prices fall, then we can afford more home.
So, we may be set to increase our countries revenue through exports and reduce the cost of things that are within our country.
This might cause American's to again feel rich, which would be a different way of having a strong economy and a weak dollar abroad, but a strong dollar at home.
Essentially, we cannot have a recovery that goes on course with how our economy operated before. The track simply isn't there to move forwards on. We must drive our train on the track that will at least give an option for consumer confidence returns.
When the foundation of our economy - our confidence in it - and our hierarchy of needs are slowly rebuilt, we will rebuild our country and our economy.
Friday, September 19, 2008
McCain Flub Political action e-mail
In today's speech (9/19/2008) McCain said the fed should return to managing the purchasing power of the dollar.
What that means is he wants to strengthen the value of the dollar.
However, the one factor that is keeping our growth numbers from clearly showing recession - the one bright spot in our economy - is that exports are up.
When our dollar is weak, our products are cheaper to people around the world, and we export more.
So, if we had a strong dollar right now, as McCain proposes, we would extinguish the one strong area in our economy.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Feinblum
ps. I am independent, have voted both Republican and Democrat and am very specific on who I support. I have also met and spoken at length with John McCain in the past. I like the man, this is a disagreement of approach.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
elaboration on economic crisis solution
Solution to economic crisis. OBAMA will win this election if he has the answer to the root of our problems and builds solutions around them. This is the root of the problem.
#1 Understand the root of the crisis
#2 Create a solution
#1: Massive trade deficit is not being funded by savings, it is being funded by credit, the equity in our homes, and the value of our assets.
#2: Begin a shift in the attitude of American's and the leadership towards money and where we send it. We should keep it in our pockets.
Concept, if we send $700,000,000,000 overseas. Where is that money coming from? If American's are not saving their money, we don't have cash in our accounts, how are we funding that deficit.
My theory is that we feel ok with the deficit because we are pulling it out of our market place in ways that are not so visible. An economy losing that money, does not have the money in it to support increasing home prices.
If we send money overseas, we are removing money from all of our markets - stock markets - housing markets - auto markets. Thus, we are seeing massive crashes in all of these things.
Bottom Line: We have an attitude that all of this spending, sending money overseas this way with a massive trade deficit is killing our economy from the inside out.
When we spend money that we don't have, we later can't borrow that money for a home. We have borrowed it for consumption and sent the borrowed money overseas.
Please, consider my theory on the relationship between money attitudes that make it ok for us to send 700 billion dollars overseas and the resulting loss of ability for our country to support the prices we established in our markets.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Corey Feinblum
Funding trade deficit via home equity
All these pictures show that the deficit is big and growing.
The Trade Deficit links to the US housing bubble and government deficit
The most basic view of the economy is diagramed below. Households earn the wages they spend on the goods and services from the businesses:
The following chart adds that consumers spend a portion purchasing foreign goods. The foreigners then recycle the dollars they collect from this trade into the US government debt by buying Treasuries and into Agency debt of Government Sponsored Enterprises like Fannie Mae, which then provide money for housing.
Foreigners have funded our housing boom and provided enough credit that the growing Federal deficits have not driven interest rates up. Much is simplified out of the above explanation, but the value is that we can see the biggest and most important money flows.
The US credit market matches the amount borrowed and lent. The accumulated foreign contribution of $4 trillion of lending (investment) has provided the credit for the borrowing by the US government whose debt held by the public is now similar in size to the accumulated foreign loans to the US. The chart below shows the size of Federal government debt and the foreign accumulated current account debt to point out that foreigners are funding credit at comparable levels:
A comparison of Mortgage Debt and Current Account shows similar growth rates:
Subprime mortgages are a symptom of the same unweildy spending of money, I believe was influenced by the capacity to hand money off by computers and cards, rather than cash passing from hand to hand. We couldn't see or feel how bad our transactions are.
$2333 a year going out. Per person, this includes kids.
Government needs to nationalize oil drilling where we made all the leasing available, but have not used it.
The core is actually an attitude towards money, resources, and assets that is all confused.
So, let me repeat - trade deficit is a number one problem.
Trade deficit and other money issues are an expression of a core attitude problem about money.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Rise up America - Countering the Palin Halo Effect
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Critique of Critical Thinking: Experience and What McCain and Obama Are Really Saying.
Experience got us here. Putin's experience said, "Go into Georgia." Rumsfeld's experience said, "Go Into Iraq." I believe that the world is already undergoing an immense amount of change. I see Obama's style as actually leading that change, being at the helm of it, rather than necessarily making change. Obama's change would likely be that he would have an approach that doesn't say, "I'm going to do everything myself."
I am an independant. I believe what I believe in snippets. I don't buy a candidate lock-stop-and barrel.
I watched McCain on C-SPAN, live, during Iraq hearings when he noted how we would beat back terrorists in one area, not have enough troops to hold the last area we fought in, so they would run over there. His most brilliant line was, "What are we playing here, some giant game of whack-o-mol." So, I supported him on the surge.
However, in the bigger picture - I studied Military Sociology in College - and noted that they were putting Petraus - a Military Sociology professor - in charge. It is never the plan, it is the execution.
What is experience? It is when all the information you learned in school, or someone taught you, is put to the test - by an occurence in life. That information, cycles back through your mind, becomes behavior, and then - you know something on a deeper level. Its not book knowledge, its experience. The question is, where does your experience leed?
McCain had some campaign finance trouble in the past. After that experience, he became gung-ho, for campaign finance reform. Perhaps - he was trying to reframe his image from one who was in trouble, a part of the problem - to one that was part of the solution. It makes sense.
However, he may have overcompensated. His campaign finance reform is what became the independant organizations that "Swift Boated" our last election. In my opinion - killed the delicate intellectual mind challenge that is democracy.
If you want to see what I mean, remember the Ukrainian Presidential Candidate who was poisoned? His entire face was covered in weird lesions. Search online - try to find one of their debates. I was stunned by the quality of the debate.
What we have now... is really bludgeoning each-other with talking points. IT IS NOT DEBATE. So, we stand on a cross-roads.
Lets open the debate.
Georgia: Could it be that the United States had something to do with triggering this? After-all. The Russians did take four US Humvees that were part of training exercises from Georgia. I say this with the deepest patriotism. Because if we get this wrong, we start another cold war with Russia - that will damn us for decades. IT WILL BE A PROBLEM SO BIG OUR CHILDREN WILL STILL DEAL WITH IT.
US history reads that America was blindsided by the attack at Pearl Harbor. However, the attack on the US Navy came at a time when the US navy was planning an embargo on the Island of Japan.
The US was about to lay seige, like in medieval times, running down the supplies before storming the castle. We lost a lot of people as Japan tested the concept of pre-emptive war.
In a sense Japan said, "We get them in port - or we get them off our shores." The choice, when analyzed, that Japan made - would be a simple and obvious choice.
If we always do what we always did, we're gonna always get what we always got. If we always pretend we didn't have our fingers in the cookie jar, we will escalate conflicts, in an unweildy fashion with large consequences.
So, McCain a patriot. Who wants best for the country. Goes after Russia by the throat. Perhaps thinking in his head," I will appear presidential, I will look tough - like a commander in chief." But, is that really commander in chief?
Remember the phrase, "Tread lightly, but carry a big stick." One of our greatest President's said that. What if McCain's words (Republican's knocking Obama for only being good with words) were all it took to incite the next diplomatic trainwreck with Russia? Did you ever think to stop and question that? We didn't bomb them, all we had were our words.
It was a tough front, McCain put on, while America is in a position of weakness. He further said something to the effect that in this century civilized nations do not attack other sovereign civilized nations. He tried to lecture Russia on how to behave - when at home - he just authorized a war a few years ago to invade the sovereign nation of Iraq. Regardless of agreement on the war being good or bad - that is what we did.
What would be the appropriate response to Russia? First, to calibrate our response with the realization that American influence in the region may have triggered the Georgian's to push Russia too far. Second, calibrate against history.
History says, no to appeasement. So we can't let them go on this. History also says one of the most costly and challenging experiences in the history of America - where we were at the greatest danger - was the cold war.
So I ask you - did McCain's approach calibrate well? How did it calibrate?
First - what did he say. "We America are holier than thou - we don't go into other sovereign countries - we had nothing to do with creating conditions that might have caused Geogian's to spark off this conflict - you Dam well better stop because we said so... and we are the United States of America."
I want you to examine very closely another part of another speech given by Obama. He mentioned that he was trying for months to get the US to change course in Georgia because he may have seen a potential problem brewing. Comb his speeches. Look for what Obama has said on this.
Then look, Obama said and I quote from the above article “We failed to head off this conflict and lost leverage in our ability to contain it because our leaders have been distracted, our resources overstretched, and our alliances frayed,” Obama said.
Key words: Head off this conflict.
That. That is vision. That is leadership.
Not running around with one's chest puffed out, in an act of holier than thou puffery.
Not leashing out at Russia for a problem we helped to create.
Obama has been saying that Iraq from the start would be a little bit too much of a bite to chew on. Our military and military familes are stretched very very very dangerously thin. Our alliances spent. Now, I want you to watch McCain's speech again.
Do you think perhaps - that taking a big bite out of Russia - might be a little bit more than we can chew? Or, more than we want to chew?
I want you to consider a thought - because, we don't have the military or alliances to do anything against the Russians beyond words. The phrases McCain used were a tough front. But imagery wise, at the moment, the United States and John McCain are both toothless old men. We don't have the bite - we don't have the military - to chew on what McCain just took a chomp out of.
If you consider this Georgian conflict to be a defining moment in foreign affairs credentials - I want you to consider all I have stated above very closely.
On the topic of experience, I want you to consider one more thing.
My experience and understanding of racism is that people said Black people were subhuman. They weren't smart enough, weren't good enough. They weren't American's, blacks didn't get a vote.
What is happening today is the next progression in the civil rights movement. A white haired old man - person x - is standing up yelling how inexperienced, incapable, and unready - the black man - person Y, is. That is the group dynamic that was racism.
Racism is looking at the face of a black man and through seeing black making that same set of judgements.
Right experience/wrong experience for the job.
Our constitution has been randsacked by the Bush administration. Obama was a constitutional law professor and may understand how to get it back. Our alliances and image around the world were destroyed Obama may be a good enough speaker to inspire people - win a few hearts and minds back. Our government has been run by people who believe that they will do everything themselves, who haven't asked American's to do things like - go have a meeting with your mortgage broker right now - rather than letting your house just be foreclosed upon. Re-negotiate. Banks are re-negotiating. Obama was a community organizer who believes that change comes from the ground up. Do we need that - when we just had a government that ignored the participation of American's in creating this country?
Wrong experience for the job.
McCain lived a huge chunk of his life before the civil rights movement. He lived his life during the cold war when tough rhetoric with Russia was the name of the game. The biggest, most important factor is innovation.
McCain has experience with the way things were in the past. Today, McCain is just learning how to google. He is just beginning to send a few e-mails.
In other words, do you want the CEO of the most innovative business in the world - The United States of America - to be a man who has not embraced some of our most transformative innovations?
How can he leed a nation of innovation when McCain cannot understand the usefullness of those innovations. Even the blatantly obvious ones.
My point here is actually quite simple.
Do not take all of this at face value. Do not read the situations on Tv at face value. STOP. STOP STOP STOP. And..... drum roll....
THINK!
I agree with McCain that businesses would be better off and more would come to this country if the corporate tax rate were lowered from 35% to 25%.
Wait a minute... I just said something I agree with McCain on, after all of the things I wrote earlier.
Aha! That is critical thinking, deep thought, debate, analysis. On Tv, all day are people spouting talking points from Republican or Democratic views so often, that I bet you hadn't even considered putting deep thinkers - independant minds - who are perhaps less exciting to listen to, yet more full of substance - in front of the camera.
All that, and I am a professional entertainer as well. I bet I could do that and be entertaining at the same time. I bet, I could have deep intellectual discourse that gets somewhere, and... and - be entertaining at the same time.
I challenge you to do the same. A major form of joy is actually derived from intellectual challenge and learning. Lets bring the joy and pleasure of reading the news and watching news on TV to add this level. Intellectual challenge. Challenge ideas.
When McCain blasts Russia the way he did is that really the kind of President we want? Was his message calibrated enough? Do we want a guy who looks tough - yet may have taken a bite out of Russia that could become something too big to chew?
I ask you to question these things far far more deeply. You are caught up in the momentum of your own computer graphics department. Slow down. Take a deep breath. Examine one point in great depth. See what happens. I think you will find that you will derive great pleasure from it, if you give it the chance.
Sincerely,
Benjamin Corey Feinblum